If...

My wife and I need to meet our cousin who lives about 25 kms away. There are multiple routes to reach her place, and before we leave, we discuss the options. I feel going through the "ring road" is quicker since the roads are wider, and there are less signals to pass through. However, the route is longer by about 6 kms. The route via the city centre, though shorter, has more signals. Anyway, the options are only regarding which route takes longer. We don't want to be stuck on the road for a long time. No fun in that and with petrol prices at stratospheric levels, we cannot afford that too!

We choose the ring road, the over-riding reason being that I am driving the car. But we didn't contend with the traffic jam today. There are at least three places where the traffic is insane and at each place we spend almost 10 minutes navigating through 6 lanes of vehicles of all description crammed into three lanes of traffic, with motorbikes occupying all intervening spaces. With the stop-start-stop being the norm, my wife also starts the same "start commenting, stop commenting, start commenting". If you had listened to me, if you had driven through the city, if I had not finished dinner before leaving as you wanted me to, if...if...

How can wives know where the traffic will be lighter? Beats me. But during occasions such as these, they pretend they have a seventh sense (the sense to detect traffic jams).

We do tend to look back at various points in our lives to pause and reflect. If only I had prepared for my CAT more thoroughly, if I had applied for a US university, if I had not taken up my job at XYZ, if I had done this, if I had not done that...

In fights with my wife, we have said many things to each other including if we had not married each other. I have often thought of this, honestly..

Life is full of choices. We are confronted with this right from our school days, where our parents make the choices on behalf of us. They choose our schools and from there we form friendships and alliances and networks. These are some of the strongest influences in our lives. We remember many of our school friends even later on in life. Thanks to the internet and social networking sites, we can remain connected even when we are into our fifties. Later on when we move to higher classes, we need to make our own choices. The most important "fork in our life" comes when we move from X std. to junior college or Plus 1 or XI (depending on the board of education). Science, Arts, or commerce? PCMB or PCMC? Commerce with Economics and Statistics or Business studies? The decisions we take here determine the path along which we will travel for the rest of our lives. Oftentimes we consider ourselves too immature to take these decisions and leave them to our parents to decide. The more "mature" ones have even "maturer parents" who want their kids to take a particular course. Entrance exams, colleges, courses, jobs... and the list goes on probably culminating in "choosing" the life partner.

"I think Arup (name changed) should have taken metallurgy in NIT Jaipur instead of studying electrical engineering in a Bangalore college. You (this to her husband) told us then when we went for counselling that Arup need not go to Jaipur. The college is not so good. But now Lalitha's son, Prashanth, has completed B.E. Computer science from NIT Jaipur and has got admission in a US University. If only Arup had joined NIT Jaipur...."

It is comforting to live in the past and examine each decision and choice with the benefit of hindsight (which has 20/20 vision) and then find fault with one's own choice or with the choice of the partners. In my opinion, this is wishful thinking and doesn't take us anywhere. You cannot drive a car constantly looking at your rear view mirror. You only look at it occasionally to see what is behind you. Drive looking ahead.

Leave the "ifs" in the realm of flowcharting where it truly belongs. You need to ask yourself many questions starting with "if" while flowcharting, to understand the various choices people in the process make. What do you do if the invoice doesn't have the PAN number of the supplier? What will you do if there is no budget this year for the item indented, but it is a critical item needed now? Ask innumerable questions with IF at each stage of your process while creating your flowchart for the process that you are studying to determine what actions people take under various situations. 

However, do not live your life with an IF.

FDI in retail

The opening up of the retail sector to FDI has generated a lot of interest and debate in the media and among people who meet over drinks or dinner. Without trying to get into the societal impact or the economic benefits as measured through GDP or per capita income, I would like to present some thoughts that have crossed my mind.

Welcoming FDI in retail as a bold step initiated under the able and dynamic leadership of the PM, the media is comparing this to the economic liberalisation of 1991. As far as I understood the liberalisation of 1991, much of it had to do with opening up of the economy to Indian players and removing the licensing system that was in vogue. 

I was part of a survey that was taken up by National Productivity Council about one year prior to the reforms of 1991 at the behest of the Government of India. We visited a sample of industries in various sectors and i remember visiting Madras Fertilizers Ltd., Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Ltd, near Karur, a plywood manufacturing unit in Kerala, a pharma company in Bangalore, and other such units. Like me there were almost 10 other consultants who were part of the survey in other parts of India. Almost all executives dealing with government for such mundane requirements as importing spares for machinery, had to wade through multiple agencies in the GoI before getting the necessary clearances. Importing of manufacturing equipment was a big hassle, and in the absence of many manufacturers of equipment in India, it was a herculean task to expand the capacity, even if demand was there. Under this scenario, it was no surprise that the reform, which ushered in a slew of changes in the permit raj and licensing goondaism that prevailed till then, was welcomed with open arms by the local manufacturers. Many sectors which were till then restricted to small players were opened up - among them were the garment and footwear sector - and we saw an explosive growth in these two industry segments subsequently. Moreover, these two industries are labour intensive and are not very amenable to automation and robotics. 

Expansion of such sectors invariably brings in an increase of jobs and production of goods within the country sets up the stage for providing indirect employment to many in the downstream and upstream areas as well as the various service sectors to support manufacturing. One additional job in manufacturing may generate about 10 jobs overall. This is my assumption and I am open to listen to contrary views. On the contrary, creation of jobs in retail sector, which is what is being touted as one of the benefits of opening up of FDI in retail, will at best create 2 additional jobs in logistics. RETAIL SECTOR BEING THE LAST LINK IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN FROM FACTORY TO CONSUMER, I have my own doubts of the employment generation capabilities in this sector. Where the trading activity is more pronounced in an economy, like the Gulf countries, starting of Walmart or Tesco may bring in employment opportunities. In India, I feel it should not have been brought in unless other sectors had improved - primarily education, agriculture, natural resources, and health care.

Heavenly Bliss - 2

PART 3 (this is an sms conversation)

y dint u call 4 2 wks.
i hd gone 2 my native.
with who.
sis, bil, mom, dad, and rajiv.
when did u return.
y'day
how was trip
gud.
shall v meet 2day.
s
whn
5
whr
same place
bye


PART 4

Ice-cream?
No.
Wedding date nearing...when are you on leave?
From 25th.
What about you?
From 2nd.
Why only one week before the wedding date?
Why to take leave before? I can take more leave after wedding.
How many days have you applied?
45 days?
Approved?
No, not yet. Am afraid...suppose they only grant for one month means, our plans will change?
Hmmm. Anyway... I have booked tickets and stay. Since our local visits are only after our return, we can take the risk. No need to change our plans.
Ya. That was the right decision to take.
My leave is only till 21st.
Why?
Travel from 23rd till 5th.
Where to?
Gurgaon. Want to come?
No...Don't want to go to North. Had enough during my 4 years.
What job exactly do you do?
Want to hear about it again? I already told you na, I am a personality development trainer and coach.
That you told...but what do you do?
Help people help themselves, I think.
Hmmm. Ok, da. Got to go.
Bye.

Safety

This has been my desire to write on a topic which is close to my heart.

Do we know what is safe for us? I doubt. There are many instances of "educated" Indians not caring about safety. Let me illustrate this with a few examples from my life.

While driving, I wear my seat belt. It has become such a habit, that immediately after starting the car, before even engaging the gear, I put on my seat belt. I also insist that the person in the passenger seat adjacent to me should wear the seat belt. My kids have started following this religiously and so has Meena, my wife.

Once my son took off the seat belt while we were still not home (in fact driving away from home). I remonstrated with him. He said, it was too tight. I am unable to understand the logic of the statement that is often made, "Appa, nothing has happened so far. Why don't you allow me to remove the belt at least for a few minutes. Nothing will happen." I tell guys that an accident is an event that happens in an instant - less than a second. With automobiles and multiple vehicle types on our roads, it is impossible to predict in advance an accident and prepare yourself to avoid any injury. The consequences of any accident can be pretty severe and you should know how much trouble it would cause you and your family. So take care, always. This is an example of a Black Swan event.

Why are kids so less conscious of safety? Is the subject of safety not taught adequately in schools and colleges? I know our education system gives importance only to core subjects and other "knowledge" is left to the parent to imbibe. If our education system is like that, I cannot complain and wait for the changes to be incorporated in the education system. I, as a parent, should be responsible for teaching my children lessons in safety.

We often see the extent to which motorbike riders drive on roads. They weave through the traffic unmindful of the rear-view mirrors and if a person hits the mirror, he may or may not apologize. Once I saw a motorbike rider with a 5 year old kid in front (riding on the fuel tank) almost graze my mirror. I opened the window, closed the mirror and asked him to go ahead. Probably he was in a great hurry! But later on I wondered what lesson would the kid have learnt seeing his dad drive? Are we giving good lessons on safe driving to our kids?

Black Swan events

We know of swans as white. In Hinduism, it is accorded a special place as a "vaahan" (vehicle) for Goddess Saraswathi (goddess of learning and music). Most depictions of swans are as a white bird. It also symbolises purity of thought and action. Purity of the soul. Probably, 3000 years ago, white was the colour of purity and black the colour of "rakshas"... (Picture of white swan from here)


Europeans, too, thought there were only white swans in the world.  If someone wanted to signify an event which would have a very, very low probability of occurrence, he would say, "it will happen when I see a black swan". Things went swimmingly, until someone found black swans to be native of Australia and New Zealand sometime in the early 18th century, perhaps. The shock and surprise was complete. Black swans did not come with an adjective of high improbability. They were just not native to Europe, but not rare at all.

The consequences of such realizations have been the subject of a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (more details here) and the title of his book is appropriately "The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable". It has attracted the attention of people in Wall Street and academia who have come to recognize in this book the near impracticality of predicting "black swan events" - events that are extremely rare, but whose impact is far-reaching and probably global. (Image of black swan from here).

Extreme examples are 9/11 and the aftermath in terms of war, increased security, man-hunt and the changes that we see to this day - 11 years on. On the positive side, we have Internet, Google, mobile telecommunication (especially in India), and the rapid technological changes it has wrought in society and business as a result.

Could anyone have predicted these? There is someone who has, strangely. A futurologist called Ray Kurzweil (more here) who has been able to predict many "black swan" events with timelines. Among his predictions was the power of internet, wireless communication and internet access, nano-technology, and power of chess programs to routinely win against the best humans. His predictions are here.

Of interest to me is not these phenomena which are global. If there are black swan events on a global scale, can we not have black swan events at a country, province, district, village, or family level too? Events which are not foreseen, but which can have intense impact when it does happen. I can think of the 2004 tsunami which devastated many coastal towns and villages in Tamil Nadu, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Indonesia. For those villages and towns the event was a black swan event. Highly improbable, but with devastating consequences for life and savings. Tsunamis in the Pacific were the reasons for the advance warning systems that were established along the Pacific - from US through Hawaii upto Japan. But no one predicted that an Indian ocean tsunami could be so enormous - at least till Dec 26, 2004.

Without going through the country, state, province, district, and village levels for other examples, let me go to the black swan events that can rock a family. What do we say happens to Mr. Sushil Kumar who was the winner of the Rs. 5 crore jackpot prize during season 5 of the popular quiz show, Kaun Banega Crorepati (KBC) (inspired by the British show, Who wants to be a Millionaire)? A computer operator, whose monthly salary was 6,000 rupees. His life would have taken a totally different turn since winning the top prize in KBC 5. A black swan event in his family. On the positive side, no doubt. Coming to think of it, wasn't KBC itself a black swan event for Star Plus and for the career of Amitabh Bachchan, its host? (more details here as to why KBC is such a hit).

At a personal level, illnesses and its consequent effect on the person can be a black swan event. I have had two of them in my life - each made an enormous impact in my life.

No, marriages are NOT black swan events in one's life - even though it changes one completely. You see, it is inevitable and you know you are going to "fall" into it (what is "it", I won't tell).

Do you have any "black swan" events in your life?

Heavenly Bliss

This is going to be a multi-part blog. I will be publishing it in instalments - something like a serialised novel in ananda vikatan. It is essentially conversational in style. Let me be honest. None of what I am describing has happened to me in entirety. Maybe some parts of it may be personal in nature, but I hope that you will not be able to separate what is fact from fiction! Moreover, I didn't want to be burdened with quotes, names, and capitalisation of letters, so fonts are in lower case. I am sure there are enough hints for the reader to guess who is who. There are going to be only two people in this blog.

PART - 1

hello!
hiiii.!
shall we meet today?
where?
same place.
no, not there again. maybe at cumin near nehru park. i heard he makes good pasta. want to try that.
ok.
what time?
5.
ok.
have your parents said ok for such meetings?
yes. in fact my mother is fine with this. we are already engaged no. so ok. before engagement she had said no. we can get to know each other better before marriage, na. maybe you look so 'innocent' that she thinks you cannot harm anyone. haha.
haha.

PART - 2

why are you saying no to ring and chain?
i don't like jewellery, that's why. have you seen me wearing any ring or chain?
no. but why are you against buying a ring or chain for yourself? if my parents want to gift you, say ok, na.
no. it is against my values. let's not discuss this ok. your mom, your uncles have all asked me many times. in fact my mother and father also are pestering me to say ok. but i am against jewels. its a waste of money to invest in this.
it will be useful later.
when?
if we have some difficulty, we can take loan against gold or dispose off the gold and get cash.
do you know anyone who has done so?
no.
then why get into this now? i don't want. leave me, no.
i thought we can have reception after marriage. our marriage is on friday. its a working day. reception means, my colleagues all can come.
so can mine. but that will be double the expense for your father. so only i said no reception. people who want to attend our marriage should come for the marriage only. why reception separately? are we so famous? let's not do what everyone is doing, ok?
shanta was saying that you said no to reception because you don't want to sit on a sofa with bouquet and garland, like a joker. is that correct?
ya. so she says everything that i tell her to you, is it. have to be careful in future. anyway, do you want ice-cream. i feel like having one today.
ya.
let's order one and share it!
aiyo. not in public.
in private means, ok for you? i will remember this for later.

Fork in life

I have often been struck by the wide variance I see in our life consequent to a certain decision taken at a particular time in our lives. Marriage may be the obvious event which characterizes the "fork" (let us call it a fork in our life). However, there are other significant events that may have occurred in our journey and it is important to recognize them.

I can think of one of the most important "forks" in my life. It was an entrance test for admission to a 3-year BE program at Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore in 1977. There were 4 papers that one had to take. Physics, Mathematics, and General Knowledge were compulsory, while for the fourth paper one had a choice. One could either choose Chemistry or Advanced Mathematics. I had just completed my B.Sc. with a major in Physics (major signified that I had 8 papers in Physics spread over 3 years, whereas for the minors, that is, Chemistry and Mathematics, I had two papers each) and hence just before the commencement of the "optional paper", my friends and I were debating as to which would be a better choice which could maximize the probability of our admission to the Institute. I was undecided and realized with a sinking heart that neither would in my case! My friends decided to opt for Advanced Mathematics since Chemistry was our minor and it was felt that we didn't have the necessary "memory" to remember all the complex formulas that would most likely be asked.

The one good thing about this option was that we could defer the decision of our choice till the time of the distribution of the question papers. I was still undecided when we sat down in the exam hall. My mind was in a confused state. I thought my advanced maths level was just average; but my chemistry knowledge was no better. What should I do? I cursed myself for not trying for REC's immediately after my Higher Secondary. I remembered a cousin who after seeing my marks had commented that I could have got a seat in REC Trichy and a good branch without any trouble. And entrance to REC's was only based on Higher Secondary marks.There was no entrance exam. I cursed my decision to do a B.Sc. course without thinking through the consequences of doing an under-graduate program in sciences when research was not my cup of tea. I should have known. I flunked a project for my National Science talent and did a very poor job. That experience should have taught me important lessons in understanding my capabilities. I was a fool twice over. I thought I had no future.

The invigilator had commenced distribution of the question papers and he was asking each candidate which paper he/she wanted to write. As far as I can recollect now, most had a very assured air about them when they said, "Chemistry" or "Advanced Mathematics". I was still unsure. The invigilator was moving closer towards me with two bundles of question papers in his hand. I had to take a decision. This was going to be one of the most important decisions in my life. Which paper should I write? Could someone help me? Please...

Time marches on inexorably. We sometimes want Father Time to stop, but it doesn't. The invigilator was performing his duty with utmost efficiency and before I realized it, he was near me. "Chemistry? or Advanced Mathematics?" he asked with raised eyebrows. I may have hesitated for a micro-second before blurting out 'Chemistry'. He calmly handed over the Chemistry paper before moving on, scarcely noticing the terror he had left in his wake. My choice was instinctive, not based on a serious introspection of my capabilities and limitations. I was a fool not to have seriously thought it over and prepared more systematically. It was too late. My fate was sealed now.

The questions asked are buried deep in the archives of my memory bank (or so I hope), so I do not remember even one question. I was in a daze for a couple of minutes. Have I made the right choice? My friends would have chosen Advanced Mathematics. I remembered a close friend who was a B.Sc. Maths student and one year senior to me and to whom I would go occasionally when a difficult problem confounded me. Maybe choosing Advanced Mathematics would have helped my cause, I thought. But thankfully, the question paper on Chemistry absorbed my attention and I completed the exam and came out. We gathered in the corridor and were discussing the question paper, as all students do. Imagine my horror, when I couldn't find even one friend who had chosen Chemistry. I thought I was the biggest fool. Their next words lessened my anxiety a bit. Each of them said that the Advanced Mathematics paper was very tough. We do sympathize with others' misery; but when our misery is less, we secretly rejoice.

None of my friends got through, but I was selected!

I could not see it then, but now I see a silver lining in all this drama. If I had been the first student who was approached by the invigilator, what would I have said?